If you’re unaware of the most recent 2nd amendment case in the Supreme Court, let me give you a quick refresher. NYSRPA v. Bruen deals with the “may-issue” scheme plaguing liberal states. Essentially, the government decides whether you can carry a firearm based on specific criteria or an atypical need from the general population. Suspiciously missing from this criterion is “self-defense.”

Maryland has a scheme very similar to New York’s. The Machine Gun Nest is a Maryland-based company, and I grew up in Maryland. I recently received my concealed carry permit from Maryland State Police after submitting to an intensive background check which required me to prove (with tax forms, bank account statements, and more) that I was indeed a business owner. If I had merely said that I was a humble tax-paying, law-abiding citizen who was concerned about their safety on my evening walks through Baltimore city, I would have denied that permit.

See the issue here?

Well, so does the Supreme Court.

Oral Arguments for NYSRPA v. Bruen took place on Nov. 3rd, and afterward, it seemed like the majority of Justices were staunchly on the 2nd amendment side. We’ll have to wait until summer 2022 to get the verdict, but it appears that the state of New York has seen the future and has already started crafting legislation to render a concealed carry permit useless.

New York Bill A08684 is an apparent reaction to the almost certainty that the Supreme Court will rule New York’s permitting scheme as unconstitutional. The bill itself states that no firearms can be possessed anywhere on “public” transportation (including rideshares, trains, and taxis), in restaurants, or anywhere where 15 or more people are gathered.

While this bill may be depressing to read for the New Yorkers who are desperate for the ability to defend themselves, the evidence is clear that even the government of New York seems to be confident that they’re going to lose NYSRPA v. Bruen.

What does this mean for the rest of the country? Well, it means the end of “may-issue” schemes, which means that all 50 states would switch to a shall-issue system. We saw a similar occurrence in 2017 when Washington DC lost in DC Circuit Court for the case Wrenn v. District of Columbia. If you want to carry a firearm in DC and complete the required training, you are guaranteed to receive a permit to carry a gun. Interestingly enough, DC Government did not appeal the case to the Supreme Court probably because they didn’t want an NYSRPA v. Bruen situation on their hands. 

The firearms industry certainly is preparing for an explosion of concealed carry. We were at SHOT Show in Las Vegas and heard much talk about the case, especially from dealers and firearms instructors in more liberal states. In addition, many new products for 2022 are personal protection and carry focused, like Federal’s new 30 Super Carry, S&W’s new CSX handgun, and many more.

So, what should we expect?

Later this year, when the court announces their verdict, they also may decide to clear up a big problem in gun law right now. There’s only been a handful of 2nd Amendment cases that the Supreme Court has ruled on. Because of this, 2nd Amendment law isn’t exactly crystal clear to some courts. (How you could misinterpret “shall not be infringed” is beyond me.) The result of this uncertainty is that lower courts like the liberal-leaning 9th Circuit essentially rubber stamp unconstitutional gun control like assault weapon bans and more because the Supreme Court hasn’t explicitly ruled on one way or another on an issue.

NYSRPA v. Bruen may serve as an excellent opportunity for the Supreme Court to clear up some bad lower court rulings.

At the very least, here in Maryland, we’re expecting an explosion in concealed carry permits. To give you an example of the disparity between a free state and a liberal state, Maryland and Indiana have similar populations. Still, the percentage of residents with carrying permits in Maryland is 0.4%, while Indiana is 18%. That’s a significant disparity, and this disparity has likely grown larger as the statistics on carrying permits were last recorded in 2017. 2020 & 2021 saw a considerable rise in concealed carry permit applications at the rate of 10.5% growth in permit applications year over year.

Needless to say, we’re excited to be delivering some good news when it comes to gun law, but only time will tell what the Supreme Court has to say for NYSRPA v. Bruen. If there’s any indication of victory, it’s when the blue state governments start to panic. That’s clear from the pending legislation in New York. So, we’re predicting a victory for the 2nd Amendment. The only thing yet to be shown is how far that victory will go.